Process Of Determining A Regression Finance Essay - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 10 Words: 3039 Downloads: 8 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Essay any type Did you like this example? The process of determining a regression or prediction equation to predict Y from X , with all the method of least squares. In the resulting regression line, the sum of the squared discrepancies between the actual dependent values and the corresponding values predicted by the line are as small as possible, hence the name least squares' (Hassard, 1991). The estimated regression equation is: Y = ß0 + ß1X1 + ß2X2 + ß3D + à ª Where the ßs are the OLS estimates of the Bs. OLS minimizes the sum of the squared residuals OLS minimizes SUM à ª2 The residual, à ª, is the difference between the actual Y and the predicted Y and has a zero mean. In other words, OLS calculates the slope coefficients so that the difference between the predicted Y and the actual Y is minimized. The residuals are squared so as to compare negative errors to positive errors more easily. The properties are: 1. The regression line defined by 1 and 2 passes through the means of the observed values 2. The mean of the predicted Ys for the sample will equal the mean of the observed Ys for the sample. 3. The sample mean of the residuals will be 0. 4. The correlation between the residuals and the predicted values of Y will be 0. 5. The correlation between the residuals and the observed values of X will be 0. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Process Of Determining A Regression Finance Essay" essay for you Create order Stationarity Stationarity can be defined as a time series yt is covariance (or weakly) stationary if, in support of if, its mean and variance are both finite and outside of time, and the auto-covariance doesnt overgrow time, for those t and t-s, 1. Finite mean E (yt) = E (yt-s) =  µ 2. Finite variance Var (yt) = E [(yt- µ) 2] = E [(yt-s  µ) 2] = 3. Finite auto-covariance Cov (yt, yt-s) = E [(yt- µ) (yt-s  µ)] = ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ³s Non-Stationarity The variance is time dependent and visits infinity as time strategies to infinity. A time series which is not stationary depending on mean can be done stationary by differencing. Differencing is a popular and effective method of removing a stochastic trend from a series. Nonstationarity in a time series occurs individuals no constant mean, no constant variance or those two properties. It could possibly originate from various sources nevertheless the most crucial one is the unit root. Unit root Any sequence that contains one or more characteristic roots which can be comparable to is known as a unit root process. The most convenient model which will contain a unit root may be the AR (1) model. Look at the autoregressive process of order one, AR (1), below Yt = ÃÆ'†°Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¸Yt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt Where ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt denotes a serially uncorrected white-noise error term which has a mean of zero and also a constant variance If ÃÆ'†°Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¸ = 1, becomes a random walk without drift model, that is certainly, a nonstationary process. 2, we face precisely what is called the unit root problem. This means that were facing a scenario of nonstationarity in the series. If, however, ÃÆ'†°Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¸ 1, then this series Yt is stationary. The stationarity on the series is essential because correlation could persist in nonstationary time series whether or not the sample is quite large and might end in what is called spurious (or nonsense) regression (Yule, 1989). The unit root problem can be solved, or stationarity can be performed, by differencing the info set (Wei, 2006). Testing of Stationarity If the time series features a unit root, the series is considered to be non-stationary. Tests which may be helpful to confirm the stationarity are: 1. Partial autocorrelation function and Ljung and Box statistics. 2. Unit root tests. To check the stationarity and when there may be presence of unit root inside the series, one of the most famous with the unit root tests are the ones derived by Dickey and Fuller and described in Fuller (1976), also Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) or said-Dickey test has become mostly used. Dickey-Fuller (DF) test: Dickey and Fuller (DF) considered the estimation of the parameter ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ± from the models: 1. A simple AR (1) model is: yt à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ½Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¡Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  yt-1 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¥ 2. Yt =  µ + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±yt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt 3. Yt =  µ + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²t + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±yt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt It si assumed that y0 = 0 and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt ~ independent identically distributed, i.i.d (0, ÃÆ' Ãƒâ€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢2) The hypotheses are: H0: ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ± = 1 H1: |ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±| 1 The ADF test may be tested on at the least three possible models: (i) A pure random walk without a drift. This is defined by while using constraint ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±= 0, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ² = 0 and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ³ = 0. This may lead to the equation ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  yt = ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  yt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt The Equation above is a nonstationary series because its variance grows with time (Pfaff, 2006). (ii) A random walk with a drift. This is obtained by imposing the constraint ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ² = 0 and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ³ = 0 which yields to the equation ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  yt = ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ± + ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  yt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt (iii) A deterministic trend with a drift. For ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ² ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   0, becomes the following deterministic trend with a drift model ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  yt = ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ± + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²t + ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  yt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt The sign of the drift parameter (ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±) causes the series to wander upward if positive and downward if negative, whereas the length of the value aspects the steepness of the series (Pfaff, 2006). Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF): Augmented Dickey-Fuller test can be an augmented version on the Dickey-Fuller test to accommodate some varieties of serial correlation and useful for an increased and much more complicated list of time series models. If you find higher order correlation then ADF test is used but DF is utilized for AR (1) process. The testing strategy of the ADF test matches for that Dickey-Fuller test but we look at the AR (p) equation: yt à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ½Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¡Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  t à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  y à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  iyt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt Assume that there is for the most part one unit root, thus the operation is unit root non-stationary. After reparameterize this equation, we get equation for AR (p):  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã… ¾Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  yt à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ½Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ­Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  t à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¡Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  yt-1 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  i Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã… ¾Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  yt-i à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¥t Each version from the test have their critical value which will depend on how big the sample. In each case, the null hypothesis is we have a unit root, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ³ = 0. Within tests, critical values are calculated by Dickey and Fuller and is also dependent upon whether it has an intercept and, or deterministic trend, be it a DF or ADF test. Test has problems. Its got low statistical power to reject a unit root, and power is reduced by having the lagged differences. The ADF test is also affected by size distortions that occur every time a large first-order moving average component exists inside the time series. Diebold and Rudebusch (1991) show the test has low power against the alternative of fractionally integrated series. Perron (1989, 1993) show that whenever a period of time series is generated by way of a procedure that is stationary in regards to broken trend, standard DF tests of an I(1) null might have very lower power. Alternatively, Leybourne, Mills and Newbold ( 1998) show that after a moment series is generated by way of a process that is I(1), however intense break, routine putting on the DF test may result in a severe problem of spurious rejection on the null when the break is at the outset of the sample period. Granger Causality test Granger (1980) Granger causality measures whether one thing happens before another thing and helps predict it and nothing else. Grangers definition1 for probabilistic causality assumes three basic axioms: (1) The cause must precede the effect in time, (2) The cause contains some unique information concerning the effects future value, (3) While the strength of causal relations may vary over time, their existence and direction are time-invariant (Granger, 1980; 1988a, b). The general definition for probabilistic causality: If F (Yt+jÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã… ¡Ut) ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   F (YT+jÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã… ¡Ut Xt), Then Xt causes Yt+j; states that if the j-step-ahead (where j represents the time delay between the perceived cause and effect) conditional probability distribution (P) of random variable Yt+j in period t + j is changed by removal of X from the universal information set (U) existing in period 1, then X, causes U, would contain all possible information in existence up to and including period t. Xt, would contain all past and present values of variable X. The change would be due to some unique information Xt, has concerning Ys future distribution. If X occurs, and X and Y arc causally related, Ys probability of future occurrence changes. Note that Ut, includes Y, so that Xt, contains some information about the value of future Y not found in past or present Y (Granger, 1980; 1988a, b). The general definition implies that if a variable X causes variable Y, then if one is trying to forecast a distribution of future Y, one will frequently he better off using the information contained in past and present valu es of X (Granger, 1980; 1988a, b). GRANGER (1980), noting the absence of a universally accepted definition for causality, offered a probabilistic definition which he suggested might be useful in econometric research. Granger (1980) proposed two operational definitions which he derived from his general one. The first he referred to as causality-in-mean. The second he referred to as full causality or causality-in-distribution. Full causality is preferred to mean causality when decision-making populations are characterized by non-linear utility functions (Ressler and Kling, 1990). Ashley et al. (1980) proposed and applied a method of testing for a mean causal relationship between two variables. Given a prior belief that X caused Y, mean causality was inferred if the mean squared error of a one-step-ahead point forecast of Y from a bivariate model (an information set of past and present Y and X) was significantly less than that from a univariate model (past and present Y) over the sa me out-of-sample period. 1 Source TESTING FOR GRANGERS FULL CAUSALITY by Ted Covey and David A.Bessler 2Granger causality tests are mostly used in situations where we are willing to consider 2-dimensional systems. If the data are well described by a 2-dimensional system (no zt variables) the Granger causality concept is likely to be straightforward to think about and to test, noting that there are special problems with testing for Granger causality in co-integrated relations (see Toda and Phillips (1991). Engle and Granger A non-stationary time series of which exhibit a good-term equilibrium relationship tends to be said to become cointegrated. The potential of non-fixed time series to possibly be cointegrated was considered inwards 1970S by Engle and also Granger. Many people define cointegrated specifics in their own paper coming from 1987 in the following approach. Consider two non-stationary time series, yt and xt where each of the time series become stationary after differencing once, i.e. they are both are structured associated with, I(1). These non-stationary time series are then said to be cointegrated of order one-one, CI(1,1) if there exists a cointegrating vector ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ± that in a linear combination of the two variables yields a stationary term ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¼t ~ I(0), in the regression ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¼t = yt ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±xt. Cointegration signifies that these kind of nonstationary specifics contribution an extended operate human relationship, and so the brand new time series from pairing the actual connected non-standing time serial is actually fixed, i.e. the this deviations have limited alternative and also a regular necessarily mean. On the whole, two series are cointegrated when they are both integrated of order d, I(d) along with a linear blend of them includes a lower order of integration, (d-b), where b0. Time series need to be non-stationary to allow them to be able to be cointegrated. Thus, one stationary variable and one non-stationary variable cannot have a long-term co-movement, because the first youve gotten a constant mean and finite variance, whereas your second one does not, hence the gap between your two will not be stationary. But, if there are more than two time series within a system, it is also possible to help them to have different order of integration. Consider three time series, yt ~ I (2), xt ~ I (2), qt ~ I(1). If yt and xt are cointegrated, to ensure that their linear combination brings about a disturbance term ÃƒÆ 'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¼t = yt ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±xt that is integrated of order 1, I(1), then it is potentially feasible that ut and qt are cointegrated with resulting stationary disturbance term st = qt ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²ut., where ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±,ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ² are cointegrating vectors. Generally, with n integrated variables there can potentially exist nearly to n-1 cointegrating vectors. This does not necessarily mean that each one integrated variables are cointegrated. It is possible to find one example is a couple of 1(d) variables that is not cointegrated. If variables are integrated of different orders, they can be cointegrated. However, youll be able to have cointegration with variables of various orders. Pagan and Wickens (1989: 1002) illustrate this point clearly that its possible to uncover cointegration among variables of orders (when there are many than two variables). Enders (2004: 323) agrees with Pagan and Wickens (1989) it is possible to discover cointegration among sets of variables that are integrated of orders. This takes place when there are other than two variables. This is backed up by Harris (1995: 21). Vector Auto-regression (VAR) Vector autoregressions (VARs) were introduced into empirical economics by Sims (1980), who demonstrated that VARs offer a flexible and tractable framework for analyzing economic time series. Vector Auto-regression (VAR) can be an econometric model has been utilized primarily in macroeconomics to capture the connection and independencies between important economic variables. As outlined by Brooks and Tsolacos (2010) one benefit of VAR modeling is the fact that all of the variables are endogenous. Consequently organic meat is capable of capture more features of the results so we are able to use OLS separately on each equation. Brooks and Tsolacos (2010) also talk about Sims (1972) and Mcnees (1986) that VAR models often perform a lot better than traditional structural models. Additionally they indicate some disadvantages, one of these being that VAR models can be a-theoretical by nature. Lag-length determination is a concern critical to finding the most beneficial VAR specification. They cannot rely heavily on economic theory except for selecting variables to be within the VARs. The VAR can be viewed as a method of conducting causality tests, or even more specifically Granger causality tests. VAR can often test the Causality as; Granger-Causality makes it necessary that lagged values of variable X matched to subsequent values in variable Y, keeping constant the lagged values of variable Y and some other explanatory variables. In association with Granger causality, VAR model gives a natural framework to try the Granger causality in between each pair of variables. VAR model estimates and describe the relationships and dynamics of a set of endogenous variables. For a set of n time series variables yt = (y1t, y2t, ymt), a VAR model of order p (VAR (p)) can be written as: yt à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ½Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  A0 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  A1 yt-1 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  A2 yt-2 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ®Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ®Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ®Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ap yt-p à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ «Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¥t For just a set of n time series variables yt = (y1t, y2t, ymt), a VAR type of order p (VAR (p)) can be written as: yt = A0 + A1 yt-1 + A2 yt-2 + + Ap yt-p + et Where, p = the quantity of lags to get considered from the system. n = the amount of variables to become considered in the system. yt is definitely an (n.1) vector containing each of the n variables in the VAR. A0 is surely an (n.1) vector of intercept terms. Ai is usually an (n.n) matrix of coefficients. ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt is usually an (n.1) vector of error terms. A critical take into account the specification of VAR models will be the resolution of the lag length of the VAR. Various lag length selection criteria are defined by different authors like, Akaikes (1969) final pred iction error (FPE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) suggested by Akaike (1974), Schwarz Criterion (SC) (1978) and Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion (HQ) (1979). Impulse response functions An impulse response function (IRF) traces the consequences of the one-time shock one on the innovations on current and future values with the endogenous variables. If your innovations ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt is contemporaneously uncorrelated, the interpretation on the impulse fact is straightforward. The ith innovation ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µi, t is only a shock for the ith endogenous variable yi,t. In accordance with Runkle (1987), reporting impulse response functions without standard error bars matches reporting regression coefficients without t-statistics. In numerous empirical studies impulse response functions are already utilized to distinguish temporal from permanent shocks (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1994), in your case theyll be helpful to determine the extent to which every endogenous variable reacts for an innovation of each one variable. Traditionally, VAR studies do not report estimated parameters or standard test statistics. Coefficients of estimated VAR systems are thoug ht of little utilization in themselves plus the high (i.e. P ÃÆ'Æ’- (k ÃÆ'Æ’- k) autoregressive coefficients) number of them will not invite for individual reporting. Instead, the approach of Sims (1980) is usually employed to summarize the estimated VAR systems by IRF. IRF traces out of the effect of your exogenous shock or an innovation in the endogenous variable on each of the endogenous variables in the system as time passes, to provide an answer towards following question: Is there a effect of any shock of size ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ´ within the system at time t about the state with the system at time t + ÃÆ' Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã… ¾, without other shocks? Especially, VARs impulse responses mainly examine the way the dependent variables respond to shocks from each independent variable. The accumulated link between units impulses are measured by appropriate summation with the coefficients of the impulse response functions (Lin 2006). However, Lutkepohl and Reimers (1992) stated the traditional impulse response analysis requires orthogonalization of shocks. And also the results vary with the ordering of the variables inside VAR. The greater correlations between residuals are, a lot more important the variable ordering is. So as to overcome this challenge, Pesaran and Shin (1998) developed the generalized impulse response functions which adjust the influence of any different ordering with the variables on impulse response functions. To spot orthogonalised innovations in each one of the variables as well as the dynamic responses to such innovations, the variance-covariance matrix from the VAR was factorized when using the Cholesky decomposition method suggested by Doan (1992). This process imposes an ordering on the variables within the VAR and attributes every one of the outcomes of any common components towards first variable within the VAR system. The impulse response functions are generated by way of a Vector Moving Average (VMA), a representation o f any VAR in standard form with regards to current and past values of the innovations (ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt). We derive the VMA, assuming you can find just one lag without constant term. yt = ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  0 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  1yt-1 +ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  1 is really a matrix of coefficients in the reduced form and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  0 is usually a vector of constants. Lagging this method one period and substituting for yt-1: yt = ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  0 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  1 (ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  0 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  1 yt-2 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt-1) + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt = (I + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  1) ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  0 + t-2 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  1ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt if we go on substituting n times, eventually we have the following expression: yt = (I+ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  1 +ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¦ +0+t-n+1 + t-i

Kill or be Killed Child Soldiers Essay - 574 Words

â€Å"Children, you call them? They can pull a trigger just as well as veterans †¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Colonel Marcus Cullen, War Hammer 40,000). People should question the world in which they live when a child is forced to become a soldier. Especially when the children are under the age of 18, they should not be required to fight. Many children who are demanded to fight are taken from their families. These young adolescents are mistreated; malnurtured, abused and the girls are usually used for sexual purposes. Everyday a child, from the regions in Africa, is recruited or abducted from their family to fight in an army. Children who are drafted to fight usually do not have parents and are older (The Situation). Some volunteer for income, food, or because they†¦show more content†¦The children are trained for two brutal months, and then are set out for combat. Hence the cruel training, war was not much prettier. Nearly 300,000 child soldiers are fighting under a commander today, thi s number grows every year as more and more children are captured (House). The reason for the use of a child in warfare is because they are easy to manipulate, and do not argue, as an adult would (House). There are several jobs for a child in war; they can be spies, servants, messengers and plainly for fighting (Steel). To keep the children from fear and sorrow, they are injected with a mixture of cocaine, alcohol and marijuana. Younger children are placed in the front of the army because they are the ones who carry the AK47s, and they do not show much grief (House). There are many girls recruited to be a child soldier as well, some are given to the boy soldiers or adults to become their wives (Steel). Girls make up about 30% of the child soldier population (Parry). Most of the young women were used for sexual purposes such as rape (Steel). Soon the girls would become mothers and would have another responsibility of feeding and caring for their children, most infants did not survive very long, or even get through the birthing stage (Steel). Due to the girls being pregnant, the lady soldiers suffered through diseases, starvation, neglect and much more (Steel). Girls were not the only ones who suffered through disease, the boys did as well. After children areShow MoreRelatedThe Fear of Child Soldiers in 3rd World Countries736 Words   |  3 Pages Child Soldiers How would you feel if your child was forcibly abducted from your home to be a soldier, and back in return you got 5$? This is one of the biggest fears for families in third world countries. Children are being used as soldiers, servants , and slaves against their will. Child soldiers has become a highly debated issue, due to the high popularity of Joseph Kony. Child soldiers is unfortunately accepted usually because of the economic needs of families needs to survive in poverty. ChildRead MoreThe Issue Of Child Soldiers1129 Words   |  5 Pagesage of 9. You had no place to go anyway, for the people in the army killed your parents to abduct you. You are forced to fight for them, even if you don’t want to. You cannot escape since they would possibly kill you if you were caught, and you can’t even share that information, they could kill you for knowing so much about punishment. One day, you are in the battlefield and you kill an American soldier since you were forced to kill. Suddenly, you are captured by the US government and taken into jailRead MoreLive Like a Soldier, Die Like a Child1386 Words   |  6 Pageswater† said Ishmael Beah, an ex-child-soldier, â€Å"children who refused to fight, kill or showed any weakness were ruthlessly dealt with.† As children’s involvement in armed conflict keeps on increasing, â€Å"Child Soldiers† becomes a more and more popular phrase on newspapers and news. Many, however, do no t have an insight view on what are actually behind simply â€Å"300,000 under-age, cold-blooded killers† (The Economist, Dec. 10th, 1998). A simple question â€Å"What do child soldiers fight for?† covers a vast rangeRead MoreTeaching Children to Kill in Africa1320 Words   |  5 Pagesanyone want a child to learn to kill? Teaching children to kill may seem like a savage thing from the past, but is still present today. In this modern age, children are still being recruited and forced to become child soldiers. Many military groups in Africa train their youth to kill anyone who is seen as an opponent. Forcing children to commit such atrocities violates their human rights. Military groups only give their child soldiers the bare necessities to survive. The events child soldiers go throughRead MoreChild Soldiers And Its Effects On Children1642 Words   |  7 Pages The former President of the Uganda People s Congress, Olara Otunnu, viewed the extensive use of child soldie rs as â€Å"compelled to become instruments of war, to kill and be killed, child soldiers are forced to give violent expression to the hatreds of adults,† (â€Å"Olara Otunnu, Advocate for Children s Rights†). Otunnu elaborates how children are unable to show fear or any other emotion that defines them as human, because they are forced to follow what their capturers tell them to do. Children in armedRead MoreA Long Way Gone By Ishmael Beah And The Movie Blood Diamond910 Words   |  4 Pagesbecome adult soldiers. As for the book, A Long Way Gone† wrote by Ishmael Beah and the movie Blood Diamond, shows a briefly description of how young innocent children were obligated to be committed to be a soldier. Most of the children were restrained from leaving the different rankings that they were sent to. Ishmael Beah, is a veteran who wrote the novel A Long Way Gone, that shares his horrific memoir experience in A Long Way Gone. In Beah s younger years he was a happy child who loved listeningRead MoreThe Dangers of Child Soldiers811 Words   |  3 Pagesthis very moment, there is a group of young boys ages 8-13 who are clenching a gun being ordered to kill against their will? It’s understood that others opinions about the dangers of child soldiers being free are only because they don’t want to risk anything but, isn’t life all about taking risks? You risk your life leaving the house, and breathing. Also, countries should not prosecute child soldiers for the crimes they committed during wartime. There also should not be an international minimum ageRead MoreChildren As Instruments Of War1527 Words   |  7 Pages2016 Robbed Innocence: Children as Instruments of War Claim: Those so-called â€Å"child soldiers† shouldn’t be held accountable for their actions, because they are just innocent souls that are fighting in wars filled with violent, horrific and extremely dangerous incidents and sights, which shapes them into powerless and nameless individuals who are in a position where they have no logical awareness of. R1: Child soldiers are not morally responsible for their actions because countless numbers of thoseRead MoreA Long Way Gone Argument Essay examples990 Words   |  4 PagesEddie Salcedo Mr. Stone December 5, 2012 7th period A Long Way Until The End of This Essay The author of A Long Way Gone argues against boy soldiers but also against the loss of innocence. Beah’s parents are burned alive by the rebels; this is the first step towards his animosity towards them. In his story he talks about snorting brown brown, shooting men and how he was slowly corrupted by the men around him, turning him into a machine. It tells the story of a world as horrendous as anyRead MoreThe War Of A War1468 Words   |  6 Pagesbecause no one cares about the amount of innocent lives taken every day. The negative impact war poses on both civilians and soldiers does not receive proper attention from the media which causes society to be blinded by the true meaning behind war. Post traumatic stress disorder in war veteran’s string from multiple encounters. Most war veterans go in expecting to only kill the bad guys and defend their country. Being on the battle field causes intense pressure and fast reflex. The majority of individuals

What Is a Feature to an Archaeologist

A feature is a neutral term used by archaeologists to label anything such as stains, architectural elements, floral or final deposits, and artifact concentrations that are discovered during archaeological research that cannot immediately be identified. The idea of a feature is a function of how archaeological studies work: Many things uncovered in an excavation or on a  survey cannot be identified until much later, in the lab or after analysis, or maybe never. Features identified within archaeological excavations might include a group of artifacts found together, a patch of discolored soil, or a heap of unmodified rock. Features identified from aerial photography or field surveys might include odd patterns of vegetation growth or unexplained bumps or hollows in the earth. Why Call Something a Feature? Even if the archaeologist is pretty sure what an odd arrangement of stones means, he or she may designate it a feature anyway. Features generally have discrete vertical and horizontal boundaries. You need to be able to draw a circle around it to define what things are grouped together, but those boundaries could be a few centimeters or many meters long or deep. Designating something a feature allows the archaeologist to focus special attention on anomalies at a site, directing and delaying analysis until later when time and attention can be given to it. A feature which is a collection of stone artifacts may in the lab be identified as the remnants of a stone working location; a discoloration of soil could be anything from a storage pit for perishable foods to a human burial to a privy pit to a rodent burrow. Features identified from aerial photography might turn out upon testing or further examination to be ancient walls, which have stunted the growth of plant life; or merely a result of the farmers plowing technique.

Questions On Uranium And Uranium - 1567 Words

School of Engineering Department of Materials Science and Metallurgical Engineering NHM 412: Hydrometallurgy Hydrometallurgy assignment 2: by R. Chiradza 10145461 Supervisor/Module Coordinator: Dr. T. Coetsee Date of Submission: 11 May 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction 1 2 Safety issues 1 3 Health issues 1 4 Environmental impact 1 5 Conclusion 2 6 References 2 7 Appendix A 3 8 Appendix B 4 1 Introduction Uranium should be produced in a safe, healthy and environmentally responsible way because this is important for consumers, producers and society as a whole. The production of uranium through hydrometallurgical processes such as leaching, ion exchange, solid-liquid separation and solvent extraction has not been without controversy, especially during the early stages of the industry. Nowadays, the industry has changed drastically and a lot more can be done to ensure that safety is a number one priority. 2 Safety issues The process of mining uranium releases radon into the atmosphere as well as other heavy metals if not properly managed. Radon is a colourless, tasteless gas and exposure to high levels can increase the chances of getting cancer. As a result, every country that has nuclear facilities, has regulations to ensure public land, air and water (both surface and groundwater) are protected now and in the future (Vance, 2014). The erosion of tailings and waste rock facilities has led to contaminants (either solid or in ground/surface water) enteringShow MoreRelatedNuclear Power Has Been Highly Controversial1525 Words   |  7 Pagesin the world, specifically uranium mining. Uranium mining is an option that was presented to the world for a source of nuclear weapons, nuclear medicine, as well as nuclear power. Uranium is a natural element, it has an average concentration of 2.8 per million in the Earth’s crust. Uranium is very abundant and is more plentiful than gold, silver, and mercury. The half-life of uranium-238 is 4.46 billion years, the half-life of uranium-234 is 245,000 years, and uranium-235 has a half-life of 704 millionRead MoreUranium in Geobacter and Its Effects Essay614 Words   |  3 Pagesto metabolize soluble uranium found in underground water sources. Uranium (U) is a radioactive element which in its soluble form (VI) causes a multitude of serious health conditions (Craft et al, 2 004). Uranium is present in the environment as a result of leaching from natural deposits and emissions from the nuclear industry (WHO, 2003). Uranium salts present in a water supply can be an extreme detriment to public health as the majority of human consumption of soluble uranium can occur through a contaminatedRead MoreGeobacters Effectivness in the Removal of Uranium Essay806 Words   |  4 Pageshave solved the age long question. They have decided that bacteria do so by a hair like pili. The pili acts much like a conductive wire, by transferring electrons. Geobacter Sulfurreduncen is one of the many bacteria that do so. The energy conducted by the pili, in turn powers the bacteria. Geobacter, for short, is able to both isolate and, in a sense, kill off uranium in contaminated ground water. So my question is, how effective would it be to clean out mass amount of uranium? First I had to learnRead MoreThe Bombing Of Hiroshima And Nagasaki1593 Words   |  7 PagesWhile some arg ue that Truman’s decision to drop the bomb was in America’s best interest, others question the ethics of dropping the most destructive weapon in the history of war on a city filled with innocent civilians (Pavlik 1995). In 1939, President Franklin D. Roosevelt received a letter from Albert Einstein. In this letter, Einstein outlined a new field of physics in which the element uranium could undergo nuclear fission, releasing an incredible amount of energy (Katayma, n.d). EinsteinRead MoreShould Nuclear Energy Be Produced Or Not?971 Words   |  4 Pagesand governments are looking for new and more sufficient sources of energy. Nuclear energy has drawn the global attention to itself recently. Nuclear energy is source of energy generated by breaking uranium atoms and releasing extremely large amount of energy (NEA 2014) (ENEC 2011). However, the question of should nuclear power be used or not arises when the worlds energy consumption is increasing at a significant rate. Some sources illustrate that nuclear power produces perilous radiations and itRead MoreThe Manhattan Conspiracy : Overview1489 Words   |  6 Pagesdrop of both of these Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs). Thus ended World War II. H owever, the United States did not have enough enriched Uranium for one bomb much less two. Where did the US obtain the enriched Uranium to accomplish this task? Did U-234 play a role in this conspiracy? U-234 The German Underwater boat was given only one mission-to transport uranium oxide to the Japanese forces. 294 feet long and 22,000 tons fully loaded, was one of the titans of the German undersea fleet; it had surfacedRead MoreThe Disaster Of Nuclear Reactors1057 Words   |  5 PagesRadioactivity, n.d.). Most power reactors use water as a coolant, in light-water reactors, the core is surrounded by the coolant under pressure. The nuclear fuel contains uranium that contains 2 to 4 percent uranium-235. For fuel rods the uranium is changed to uranium dioxide (Nuclear Energy, n.d.). Heat is created by the uranium-235 atoms splitting which is called fission then steam is made which spins a turbine to drive a generator and produces electricity, this is a nuclear reaction. FukushimaRead MoreNuclear Power And Nuclear Energy1637 Words   |  7 Pageswhich atoms are split, producing heat, which boils water. The steam then turns a turbine to produce electricity. While fission is involved in nuc lear bombs, the process in each are both different. The ‘fuel’ used for this process is Uranium-235, an isotope of uranium. Nuclear energy, contrary to popular belief, does not describe the horrible power of nuclear explosive, but the calculated, safe procedure of releasing the fundamental power of the atom. The pros of nuclear energy firmly outweigh theRead MoreThe Power of the Radioactive Atom1410 Words   |  6 Pagesbeing such a powerful force but if handled properly, nuclear reactions can be as safe as chemical reactions handled in the lab. Even mining uranium is safe. The U3O8 is only mildly radioactive. (The radiation level one metre from a drum of freshly-processed U3O8 is about half that - experienced from cosmic rays - on a commercial jet flight.) (â€Å"How Uranium† 5). With such precautions like the high pressure coolant injection system that pumps coolant whenever there is a high temperature reading orRead MoreThe P5 + 1 Agreement With Iran1654 Wor ds   |  7 PagesIran, that can limit their nuclear abilities, as displayed in the past. The deal brings forth rather easy sanctions relief for Iran, limits uranium enrichment to a certain extent where Iran can still produce nuclear weaponry, and reduces the enriched uranium stockpile that can be sold for more natural uranium which can be used to produce more enriched uranium with its ability to still develop advanced centrifuges. The issues lies within the broad and quite loosely held terms of this agreement. Knowing

The Issue Of Bipolar Disorder - 755 Words

The journal articles in which my reaction will be based upon are: Definitional Issues in Bipolar Disorder Across the Life Cycle (Youngstrom 2009) and Advancing Research in Early-Onset Bipolar-Barriers and Suggestions (Carlson 2009). These two articles both had in common a specific implication of a particular issue. The main issue that caught my attention is the controversy of a doctors ability to diagnose a child with bipolar disorder. Many years ago diagnosing a child as bipolar was a rare and almost an unseen event. In recent years the number has more then doubled in the amount of children now diagnosed with the disorder. This over diagnosing of children can become dangerous especially when the child is placed on medication that could be harmful across their lifespan. There is a lack of research to identify, describe, assess and diagnose cases of early onset of bipolar disorder in children. We are giving children this serious label without even being sure what the researchers want to name it. Is it called pediatric or juvenile BP, prepuberty, or pubertal BP? These names also may not refer to any of the same conditions. Then researchers came up with a broad term so doctors don t have to be as specific about the symptoms, so they called is Early Onset Bipolar. â€Å"Researchers differ on how they elicit, assess, characterize, and count criteria†(AACAP pg. 5). It is my belief that we are lacking research in child bipolar cases because this is a rare disorder seen in children.Show MoreRelatedBipolar Disorder And Mental Health Issue1619 Words   |  7 Pages The word â€Å"bipolar† is commonly tossed around in our daily vocabulary to simply describe a person who is overly moody and easily irritated. However, the implications of the mental health issue, that is bipolar disorder, is much more complex than is implied. Bipolar disorder was first discovered in 1851 by French psychiatrist Jean-Pierre Falret who described the condition as â€Å"la folie circulaire† which literally translates to circular insanity (SeddlerRead MoreSocial And Legal Issues Surrounding Bipolar Disorder1683 Words   |  7 PagesIntroduction Bipolar disorder is a psychological diagnosis that tends to present episodes of depression and mania, thus the name manic-depression (Corry, 2010). This brain disorder causes strange mood changes, changes in routine activities and energy shifts. People suffering from bipolar disorder tend to exhibit instances of antisocial and violent behavior as they relate to people; this makes them extremely volatile and dangerous both to themselves and those close to them (Rose, 2007). The followingRead MoreBipolar Disorder : Depression And Depression1591 Words   |  7 PagesBipolar disorder is a mental disorder characterized by an alternating or shift in moods of elevation and depression. It is also known as manic depression. This mental illness is that brings severe high and low moods, it can cause changes in sleep, energy, thinking, and behavior. â€Å"Bi† which means two or alternating between two, explains the two common episodic moods that occur in individuals with this disorder; m ania and depression. According to the DSM there are multiple forms of bipolar disorderRead MoreBehavioral Therapy And Interpersonal -social Rhythm Therapy909 Words   |  4 Pagesmerriam-webster.com, bipolar is defined as having or marked by two mutually repellent forces or diametrically opposed natures or views. Similarly, Bipolar disorder is when has alternating sessions of depression and manic. Bipolarity is one the many mood disorders which belongs in the category of clinical syndromes in the classification of disorders (Weiten 605). Although the cause is not yet clear, it has many symptoms and two of the therapies that are used to treat bipolar disorder are Cognitive-behavioralRead MoreThe Problem With Bipolar Disorder1555 Words   |  7 PagesThere has been a spike in adolescents being diagnosed with bipolar disorder over the last decade, which has caused the controversy on whether there is a bipolar disorder â€Å"epidemic† or not. Although there are obstacles in bei ng diagnosed with bipolar disorder that may interfere with one’s everyday life, such as: manic episodes, mood swings, restlessness, impulsivity, potential harm to you and others, and much more. With the epidemic, it has raised the concern on whether people are being properly diagnosedRead MoreManagement of Bipolar Disorder in Adults and Diagnosis in Adolescent Children726 Words   |  3 Pages Management of Bipolar Disorder Bipolar disorder is a mood disorder when individuals experience episodes of mania and depression. The medications used in treating bipolar disorder have been effective when properly diagnosed, but there is a risk of suicide while undergoing therapy. Treatments for bipolar disorder our on the market but they can only treat the mania or the depression, which is why the patient needs to be under supervision. When a person does not followRead MoreSymptoms And Treatment Of Bipolar Disorder1441 Words   |  6 PagesBipolar disorder is a chemical imbalance in the mind that has yet to be unwound; it causes numerous emotional episodes that can happen immediately without a word. With a number of mental illnesses to diagnose them, it requires significant time and perception with a health care provider. Treatment is additionally a viewpoint that takes arranging and reflection, generally on how the patient feels in response to the solution that they are taking and different types of treatment. Albeit, bipolar disorderRead MoreTreatment For Middle Aged African American Women With Bipolar Disorder849 Words   |  4 Pageswomen with bipolar disorder What is it? Bipolar disorder is a mental illness characterized by drastic mood swings ranging from immense euphoria to extreme depression. People with bipolar disorder are likely to experience a lack of energy, participation in normal social activities, and the ability to complete daily routines. This can cause interpersonal relationships and work-life to suffer. They may also have strong thoughts of death or suicide, or suicide as a result of bipolar disorder. The causeRead MoreBipolar Disorder. Bipolar Disorder Also Known As Manic1598 Words   |  7 PagesBipolar Disorder Bipolar disorder also known as manic depression that causes multiple unusual mood swings; dealing with manic highs and depressive lows. It may also affect their ability to do everyday tasks. When depressed, there is a sense of hopelessness and sad. Even in regular activities person with disorder will lose interest. Person will deal with low energy and low energy. Also, they may deal with a feeling of euphoria, full of energy. These patterns will cause the person to lose sleep, affectingRead MoreBipolar Disorder, Formerly Known As Manic-Depression, Is1359 Words   |  6 PagesBipolar disorder, formerly known as manic-depression, is a mental disorder. This disorder causes the individual to experience severe mood swings, from elation to depression. Individuals with bipolar disorder can experience serious changes in thinking, energy and behaviour. The different states of those with bipolar experience are referred to as ‘episodes’. These episodes can last days, weeks or mont hs, depending on the severity of the episode. There are three main types of episodes, they are mania

Conservation Essay Example For Students

Conservation Essay Jean Piaget was a Swiss psychologist who did work on the development of intelligence in children. His studies have had a major impact on the fields of psychology and education. Piaget liked to call himself a genetic epistemologist (is a person who studies the origins of human knowledge) His theories led to more advanced work in child psychology. Piaget does work involving both experimental and observational methods. Piaget believed that from birth humans are active learners, he also believed that cognitive development occurs in four stages. Stage I, sensorimotor intelligence (birth-2 years), takes the child from unrelated reflexive movements to behavior that reflects knowledge of simple concepts. During this stage, the child learns about himself and his environment. Thought derives from sensation and movement. The child learns that he is separate from his environment and that aspects of his environment his parents or favorite toy continue to exist even though they may be outside the reach of his senses. Teaching for a child in this stage should be geared to the sensorimotor system. You can modify behavior by using the senses: a frown, a stern or soothing voice all serve as appropriate techniques. .

Public Health The Young Adults of America

Question: Write an OP-Ed Article and advocacy letter? Answer: OP-Ed Article Substance abuse is not something new among the young adults of America. Apart from the regular drug abuse, prescription drug abuse is also progressing among the age population of 18-25. However, for arguments sake, let us discuss the situations where an addict may safely take drugs without causing any harm to him or the society. For the argument, we need to identify the cause of taking the drug and the reason for the pursuit of pleasure they give. Human beings need pleasure along with the daily routine of life. There are various forms of pleasure like fashion, art, music, etc (Vrecko, 2013). These alter the brain chemistry and pleasure is derived from a unique experience. The use of the recreational drug is another form of pleasure and if other forms of pleasures are permissible, then drug use should be permitted. If the individual taking drugs know his responsibility level and have a strong grip on his cognitive abilities, then he can well enjoy recreational drugs without posing any danger (The University of Toledo News Releases, 2016). The above argument was done with the assumption that recreational drugs are harmless to the user. But that is not the fact. Drug addiction can cause a range of disorders to the user which includes brain damage, organ damage and death. According to the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2.3 million adolescents aged 12 to 17 used illicit drugs in 2014 (Rigg, 2015). Heroin is a member of the opioid family that is known in medical practice for its use as a painkiller, cough suppressant and anti-diarrheal. However, it is also used as a recreational drug that gives a euphoria pleasurable sensation. It can be found in different forms of powders as illicit drugs in white and brown colors. Heroin addicts can inject the drug, smoke or snort the drug. Heroin use is associated with wide range of complications and diseases that include cardiovascular disease, stroke, lung disease, cancer, HIV and hepatitis. It has been estimated that in 2014, 1.3 million adolescents had such disorders. Accor ding to the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), in 2014, about 435,000 Americans have used heroin in the year 2013. This number has been increasing since 2007 showing an upward trend. Regarding Toledo area, Heroin is considered one of the drugs available abundantly at the University of Toledo (Tavolacci et al., 2013). Heroin nowadays has different street names. Commonly used names are boy, China, dog, dog food, dope, food and papers. It sells at the cost of $10 per gram. Heroin-related mortality has doubled in the year 2015. Around 145 cases were reported with 46 deaths related to heroin in 20 Toledo-area counties (High School and Youth Trends, 2016). The University of Toledo promotes an academic and work environment that is free from misuse and illegal use of heroin and other drugs, by all the laws and regulations of the country. Heroin abuse poses a threat to health to all the members of the university. So the university community has laid down policies to control, prevent and mitigate abuse of heroin and other substances (Youssef Sari, Ph.D., 2016) But what if any student overdoses heroin and falls sick? To counter such emergencies, the University of Toledo conducts training courses, especially for the medical students. Simulated environments were created to train the students how fatal it can get to abuse heroin and what are the measures to be taken in case of the heroin overdose (Jalal, Daher Hilu, 2013). After the completion of the training, the students were urged to suppress the natural tendency to get addicted to these recreational drugs. It has also been decided that Naloxone, the common antidote for an overdose of heroin, will be made widely available to the healthcare professionals and users of Ohio and University of Toledo. Several drug stores and pharmacies will be keeping the stocks of this antidote to face emergencies. However, there have been objections from the medical and law professional bodies regarding the available dispensing of Naloxone to the public (CDC, 2012). Advocacy Letter To, Date: xx/xx/xxxx XXXXXX, XXXXXXX. Sub: Advocacy letter for heroin use in the University of Toledo I am a resident of your area and would like to present to you a problem that is worrying the students and faculties of the University of Toledo in recent times. The problem is the Heroin use among University students in Toledo, OH, USA is progressing as a menace for the students and has its destructive effects on the society. It is According to the National Survey on Drug Use and Health; 2.3 million adolescents aged 12 to 17 used illicit drugs in 2014. Sir, as a resident of this locality, I would like you to improve and develop the present situation and help the University to build up a drug-free academic environment. I need you to develop a program for facing this problem of heroin abuse. You can have my extended support on the provided contact information for any help and inquiry needed. It has been estimated that in 2014, 1.3 million adolescents had disorders related to heroin and other drug abuse. Heroin is considered one of the drugs available abundantly at the University of Toledo. Heroin nowadays has different street names. Commonly used names are boy, China, dog, dog food, dope, food and papers. It sells at the cost of $10 per gram. Heroin-related mortality has doubled in the year 2015. Around 145 cases were reported with 46 deaths related to heroin in 20 Toledo-area counties. Therefore, as a student of public health and being a responsible citizen, I would like to seek your help for counter-action of this problem of heroin addiction among the students of the University of Toledo by developing programs. These development programs have to be designed and implemented by you along with the active participation from our side. We will, however, like to start with campaigns promoting the potential hazards of drug abuse, followed by a strict ban on the unauthorized sell of heroin. These can be well arranged and managed by you, which will ultimately benefit the students. Sir, I would request you kindly focus on the problem as it a potent threat to the life of the students of the university. In addition, the activity of drug peddlers can also affect the locality severely. Please do revert for any further information. I sincerely thank you for your time and consideration. Yours Sincerely, XXXXX XXXXX References Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC. (2012). CDC grand rounds: prescription drug overdoses-a US epidemic.MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report,61(1), 10. High School and Youth Trends. (2016).Drugabuse.gov. Retrieved 10 March 2016, from https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/drugfacts/high-school-youth-trends Jalal, S., Daher, E., Hilu, R. (2013). A case of death due to ibogaine use for heroin addiction: Case report.The American Journal on Addictions / American Academy of Psychiatrists in Alcoholism and Addictions,22(3), 302. Rigg, K. (2015, November). Comparing the Characteristics of US Adult Heroin Users and Prescription Opioid Misusers. In143rd APHA Annual Meeting and Exposition (October 31-November 4, 2015). APHA. Tavolacci, M. P., Ladner, J., Grigioni, S., Richard, L., Villet, H., Dechelotte, P. (2013). Prevalence and association of perceived stress, substance use and behavioral addictions: A cross-sectional study among university students in france, 2009-2011.BMC Public Health,13, 724. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-13-724 The University of Toledo News Releases. (2016).Wordpress.utoledo.edu. Retrieved 10 March 2016, from https://wordpress.utoledo.edu/newsreleases Vrecko, S. (2013). Just how cognitive is cognitive enhancement? On the significance of emotions in university students experiences with study drugs.AJOB neuroscience,4(1), 4-12. Youssef Sari, Ph.D.. (2016).Utoledo.edu. Retrieved 10 March 2016, from https://www.utoledo.edu/pharmacy/depts/pharmacology/faculty-YSari.html